Scoping study published - insufficient funds for Navan

[Navan Junction]

Originally Posted by Mark Gleeson

We need to see the report to see exactly what it says, what assumptions and so on

Midleton is in fact profitable

I'll get my copy back sometime tomorrow and I'll scan it in.

[Navan Junction]

Originally Posted by Derek Wheeler

Might be a very long pregnancy though.

But hopefully not a phantom one

[Navan Junction]

Originally Posted by Derek Wheeler

The longer people tolerate this charade and fool themselves into believing that the direct route will happen, the less likely Navan will get a rail service.

Oh Navan will get a service alright. Either directly or via Drogheda.

But Drogheda won't be considered until the direct line issue is decided

That's just a political reality

We all know that it would makje sense to stick a couple of the new intercity trains on the Drogheda line and to link up on an existing path at Mosney loop.

But politically the idea won't gain traction until the fate of the direct line is decided once and for all.

Either route kicks hell out of road journey times

[Prof_Vanderjuice]

Mark,

Midleton would be financially viable in the sense of covering capital costs from revenue? (I know it would be profitable - as would Navan - insofar as covering operating costs is concerned.) I was just going by the 2002 Faber Maunsell study, which assessed options for the whole Cork network rather than Midleton alone, but found that even the ones excluding Midleton would still have negative financial outcomes. They do mention that nearly all the Midleton options, including the preferred one, would cover their operating costs. There may have been another subsequent study I've forgotten about.

(I won't go further with this because it's getting off topic - just curious.)

[Navan Junction]

It's not off topic - no private enterprise has even considered railways as a means of making money in decades

If a railway line is viable that it is the best you can hope for - they are there as an economic asset and preferably not to be a drain on public finances.

Navan meets both of those considerations.

Iarnród Éireann purposely put the boot in on this last night - and the word on the street it was to put pressure on the Minister in his own patch to come up with more money

[ofjames]

This report surely makes IE's case for claiming the broadstone alignment utterly redundant???

[Navan Junction]

Originally Posted by ofjames

This report surely makes IE's case for claiming the broadstone alignment utterly redundant???

Not nessessarily. I've never understood the rush to Luas for the alignment.

Broadstone is the last heavy rail alignmnet available into Dublin and shouldn't be used up until it is certain it will never be needed.

You can run a Luas up the canal alignment but you can't run a train down it.

If you loose the Broadstone alignment and the Interconnector trips slips or dies then you have problems.

The canal alignment is there and should be used.

We can't have gotten so used to the goodtimes that that we forget that things can go horribly wrong, have we?

I remember when I was a kid one lane of the M50 between Firhouse and the Greenhills road was build and lay idle for what may have been a decade, I haven't a clue.

Point is the story told at the time was that the money wasn't there to move on it.

Don't ditch your back up plan until you no longer have need for a back up plan, particularly if there are other options

[Derek Wheeler]

Originally Posted by Navan Junction

Oh Navan will get a service alright. Either directly or via Drogheda.

But Drogheda won't be considered until the direct line issue is decided

That's just a political reality

We all know that it would makje sense to stick a couple of the new intercity trains on the Drogheda line and to link up on an existing path at Mosney loop.

But politically the idea won't gain traction until the fate of the direct line is decided once and for all.

Either route kicks hell out of road journey times

The fate of the direct line has been decided. Your Government just don't have the balls to tell you.

As regards road journey times, I wouldn't be so quick to make that assertion on the basis of road projects under construction on the route. I know people in Kildare that are switching back to their cars when the red cow interchange is finished. Why? Because they reckon it will be quicker and less hassle. Tell them about the interconnector and they role their eyes to heaven. This is the reality that we face and fail to plan for. You know aswell as I do that the vast majority of people in Navan don't give a hoot about the railway. It's the same in the west (WRC). The western moaners were appeased quite cheaply. The eastern moaners are a different ball game and vastly out numbered by car loving commuters who want every other car user on public transport.

I don't blame IE on any of this. They are trapped in the world of politics and must play the game. They are also trying to administer resources to build all these projects. They are tied up on the WRC, kildare route and midleton at the moment. If everything was to go to plan they'd be facing into electrification of the Dublin area, interconnector and navan, all at the same approximate time. Thats a lot of money for the dept. of finance and an unprecedented amount of work for IE.

Sorry, as a supporter of navan, I still think its dead in terms of the direct route. You'd think that the scopping study would have been done before any announcement. Oh yeah. Thats right, it was done in the late 90s and the conclusion then was the same. Run as far as Dunboyne and build a P+R for navan as going all the way wasn't viable. But T21 was drafted by civil servants. That sums it up really.

[packetswitch]

Iarnród Éireann purposely put the boot in on this last night - and the word on the street it was to put pressure on the Minister in his own patch to come up with more money

That theory did occur to me today. Any word (official or unofficial) on Dempsey's reaction?

[ofjames]

im reading on boards that dempsey has come out tonight on rte and said that the navan line WILL definitely be built. Confusing stuff indeed if true

[Mark Gleeson]

http://www.rte.ie/news/1news/

Its not finanically viable but it is economically viable

[Derek Wheeler]

Originally Posted by ofjames

im reading on boards that dempsey has come out tonight on rte and said that the navan line WILL definitely be built. Confusing stuff indeed if true

He was hardly going to say otherwise. Anyway, its not up to him.

For the record, I don't believe him. Last night I predicted he'd come out with this type of baloney.

JUST TELL THE GODDAMN TRUTH DEMPSEY.

[Navan Junction]

Originally Posted by packetswitch

That theory did occur to me today. Any word (official or unofficial) on Dempsey's reaction?

http://www.meathchronicle.ie/story.asp?stID=1801

Navan rail line 100% certain, says Dempsey

MINISTER for Transport Noel Dempsey yesterday (Tuesday) swept aside doubts expressed by Iarnrod Eireann on Monday about the viability of reopening the Navan-Dublin rail line and declared that he was "100 per cent" behind the project.
"It will happen," Mr Dempsey told the Meath Chronicle, hours after the rail company briefed Meath County councillors that the next phase of the reopening of the line, costing €578, was "not financially viable" and "would require the full capital costs to be borne by the Government".
He said that Iarnrod Eireann`s approach to the project had been "extremely conservative", and quoted the scoping study which had clearly stated that the project was a valuable one which would justify the use of public funds. The minister also said that the company had taken a very conservative view of projected population figures along the route using 2002 census figures.
Eighty-five per cent of the forecast population increase would have to be realised in Navan, Dunshaughlin and Kilmessan before the project could proceed. "Not only did they use 2002 census figures, but they did not take into account the projected population growth in Trim, which is expected to go from 7,000 to 17,000 in 10 to 15 years, and similar growth in Kells," added Mr Dempsey.
The rate of economic return from the restored rail line is marked in at four per cent, according to Department of Finance guidelines. Mr Dempsey said that the rate of return on the Navan-Dublin project would be 4.6 per cent, "so I have no doubt at all about the viability of it".
The reopening of the line is planned as part of the Government`s Transport 21 infrastructure programme. The first phase, from Clonsilla to an interchange with the M3 at Pace, is scheduled to open within two years.
Iarnrod Eireann has already announced that its preferred route, out of nine options, would follow the line of the old Navan-Dublin line which opened in the mid-1800s. A study on the viability of the reopening revealed that the emerging preferred route would use two-thirds of the pre-existing line, with an extension to create a station at Navan North to link up with an existing but now disused Kingscourt line.
Meath on Track, the organisation campaigning for the restoration of the Navan-Dublin line, said that it was disappointed Iarnrod Eireann had said the project would not be viable. "That is no surprise since no rail line in the State is viable, not one fully covers it costs," said its spokesperson, Proinsias Mac Fhearghusa.
"The reason the company is saying it would not be viable is because it is maintaining that the initial capital investment would have to be met out of running costs. What is also unfair is that the figure of €580 million for the project is a 2015 figure," he added.
Also included in the projected cost were fleet acquisition expenses of €78 million. "However, large parts of the existing network are to be electrified and all that diesel stock, which could not be used on an electrified line, would become available for Navan," he added.
The finding of the Iarnrod Eireann study on the Dunboyne to Navan railway line found that, over a 30-year period, revenue from passengers would just cover operating costs, leaving no surplus to cover capital investment.
The study was carried out by Roughan O`Donovan - Faber Maunsell on behalf of Iarnrod Eireann.
However, a meeting of Meath County Council heard on Monday that the project would be viable under criteria used by the Department of Finance to evaluate major projects in terms of the wider benefit to the community and the local economy.
Councillors heard that, in today`s terms, the cost of the line was estimated at €455 million but, allowing for inflation, this would rise to €578 million during the construction period in 2010/2013.
Jim O`Donovan of Roughan O`Donovan explained that a route closely following the old railway line with an extension to a second railway station in north Navan was the emerging preferred route.
He explained that it was proposed to provide a twin track along the route, as a single track and passing loops would have insufficient capacity to provide a reliable service.
Councillors heard that the journey time to Navan would be approximately one hour with trains every 15 minutes at peak times and stations at north and central Navan, at Drumree, Kilmessan and Pace, near Dunboyne.
There would be diversions from the old line to avoid the M3 between Pace and Batterstown and at Drumree to locate the station at the Dunshaughlin M3 interchange. There would also be diversions west of Kilmessan and west of Cannistown to avoid existing properties.
The study ruled out routes that would take in Ratoath, Ashbourne and Dunshaughlin but the emerging preferred route will travel close to Dunshaughlin. It was estimated that the extension from Pace to Navan would provide 5,600 additional daily passengers on the line.
Tom Finn, Iarnrod Eireann`s Transport 21 manager, said that 85 per cent of the current projected population growth was needed to justify the development of the line and even the slightest dip in population could have a significant effect on its viability.
He said that 25 per cent of the capital costs could be provided through development levies with the remainder being sought from the Exchequer. He said that while the project did meet the guidelines in terms of economic appraisal, there were a lot of other projects competing for similar Exchequer funds.
Meanwile, Mr Finn said he was confident that there would be a rail link from Dublin to Dunboyne in 2010. While a decision on the railway order for this project wasn`t due until 19th February, he was confident it would be granted, allowing work on the link to begin by the end of this year. He said it would take two years to complete and would be commissioned in 2010.

[Derek Wheeler]

"Not only did they use 2002 census figures, but they did not take into account the projected population growth in Trim, which is expected to go from 7,000 to 17,000 in 10 to 15 years, and similar growth in Kells," added Mr Dempsey.

Ha ha ha!

I completely forgot that FF/CRH have the ability to rezone land, build houses and start tribunals. He's having a laugh at us. I apologise to the man. He obviously knows that Trim and Kells are to become cities!

"That is no surprise since no rail line in the State is viable, not one fully covers it costs," said its spokesperson, Proinsias Mac Fhearghusa.

Eh...they were built over 160 years ago, so their capital cost is irrelevent now. Navan's capital expenditure is being set against deliverable benefits. Its not an unfair comparison. Using existing infrastructure as an example is an unfair comparison. Navan is a new build surface line. The biggest in the history of this state.

What is also unfair is that the figure of €580 million for the project is a 2015 figure," he added.

I don't agree with that at all. Its a an inflation linked figure for the build period of 2010-2013. Its probably a conservative one at that. T21s figure was based on a 2002 estimate.

Also included in the projected cost were fleet acquisition expenses of €78 million. "However, large parts of the existing network are to be electrified and all that diesel stock, which could not be used on an electrified line, would become available for Navan," he added.

Having thought about this one, I feel its wild speculation. If it transpired the way you claim then Navan could have 10 year old plus rolling stock. Furthermore the electrification of the Dublin area does not mean that existing diesel stock is up for grabs. For example Drogheda will still claim a hefty dose of railcars post electric to service all stops to Gormanstown. Portlaoise will claim more railcars to service stops to Sallins. Don't forget Gorey and Carlow either. IE are already short stock. Navan will require new stock to service the proposed frequencies. No doubt about it.

He said that while the project did meet the guidelines in terms of economic appraisal, there were a lot of other projects competing for similar Exchequer funds.

QED Folks!

Im tellin ya, IE know the writing is on the wall. They didn't want the WRC. It robbed funds. They know navan has the potential to turn into another WRC. Half a billion yo yo's. It could actually kill off the interconnector. Dempsey wouldn't give a ****. All he'd care about is telling his constituents, "look I delivered the railway". (most of whom won't be on the f**kin train anyway!!) I'd love to see it happen, but the will/ability to spend isn't there unless something like the interconnector/metro doesn't happen. This Government left it all too late. The bill keeps going up and up. What happens from here on in will be political and highly dangerous.
Remember what I said earlier. IE only have so many resources. Some of them are currently being wasted in the west of Ireland. But the period 2010 - 2015 looks scary. I wouldn't like to be the one signing the loan cheque.

[Navan Junction]

You are preaching to the converted, but you know that. Navan periodically bubbled to the surface politically over the years but like the snow of last week it never stuck.

Ask you a question. How many people travel through the doors of Hueston daily or say Connolly per day? To the nearest 10,000 say?

[Derek Wheeler]

Originally Posted by Navan Junction

You are preaching to the converted, but you know that. Navan periodically bubbled to the surface politically over the years but like the snow of last week it never stuck.

Ask you a question. How many people travel through the doors of Hueston daily or say Connolly per day? To the nearest 10,000 say?

Yeah I know Im preaching to the converted, but its the best action this board has seen in weeks.

As for that question, heres one back.

Why?

[Navan Junction]

Just out of interest, just as a comparative exercise for projected passengers numbers with Navan and other lines about the country

[Derek Wheeler]

Listen, 8,500 passengers a day is pretty decent for the Navan line. No one can argue with that and the cars it would take off the road. But a comparative exercise with total heuston and connolly figures is useless. We probably need figures for commuter lines like carlow, kildare and gorey. But remember they are running on lines that carry other traffic aswell.

[philip]

Surely most public transport falls into this category of being "unviable"? Just take it out of my taxes Bertie-that's what I pay them for.

What a 'country' we live in.

[Navan Junction]

Originally Posted by Derek Wheeler

Listen, 8,500 passengers a day is pretty decent for the Navan line. No one can argue with that and the cars it would take off the road. But a comparative exercise with total heuston and connolly figures is useless. We probably need figures for commuter lines like carlow, kildare and gorey. But remember they are running on lines that carry other traffic aswell.

I know but it is relevant. I couldn't give damn whether I take a train from Navan and it gets me to Dublin city centre in 50 minutes or 70 minutes.

I would prefer any service to another decade of waiting, and either path to Dublin is better that the grid-lock rat race through Blanch.

Point is from an economic perspective it does matter because if the long term vision justifies the direct line to Navan (and God knows we have waited long enough for the dithering to end) then that's what needs to be done.

We have passenger figures for Navan for the first time - maybe it's time to work through comparisons with existing services.

The figures for the line are based on northern line comparisons as well, just to add that in