Scoping study published - insufficient funds for Navan

[Navan Junction]

The scoping study hasd confirmed route three as the preferred route of the Navan line.

Route 1 is the old alignment to Navan Junction where the new Navan Central will be built.

Route 2 is the old alignment with an extension to the Kells road for an additional Park and Ride to ber called Navan North.

Route 3 is the old route with a deviation to the M3 interchange at Dunshaughlin, returning to the old alignment but deviating west around Kilmessan. From the the old alignment is used until Cannistown /M3 where the line deviates behind the new houses and rejoins the alignment to join the Drogheda line for Navan Central, terminating there.

The Trim road station no longer figures.

Route 4 went into Dunshaughlin but would have cost €55m more because of having to go below 2 new roads and over the M3 twice.

All other five routes were discounted for the usual reason and as Ratoath cannot grow anymore as it has no more capacity for services (sewerage etc) and Ashbourne is too far.

Pros: Route has finally been selected.

Cons: Iarnród Éireann have said it is not a financially viable project as even though it will cover it's running costs as project and will be economically viable as revenue will not cover depreciation.

And €78 million has been landed on the project for the second hand rolling stock that would be used.

Estimated cost €450m at todays prices, €580 at 2015 figures.

IÉ claim section 49 levies will not cover costs (not with the 1km radius on the Dunboyne model anyway).

IÉ claim 1hr journey time to Docklands at best saying it will be uncompetitive with roads.

IÉ claim that they have no access to Tranport 21 costings but that they have been told that the funding is not in Transport 21 for that amount as it exceeds the Transport 21 costing by €200m - work out the maths.

The are recommending abandonment of the project as it does not offer the same value as other competing projects in Transport 21.

Footnote - Sewer pipe gets moved if built.

[Derek Wheeler]

Its my news to the masses.

Im putting it in here because it has a wider (and deservedly so) interest than just RUI members. Yes its an infrastructural issue, but its dynamite. The news may have broken elsewhere, but here goes.

IE made a presentation to Meath CC today in relation to the routes and costings for the rail line from Pace to Navan. The same presentation is being made to the DOT next week. Tom Finn of IE is running the show.

Some of the route options examined were bonkers, but the preferred route (option 3) is more or less the original alignment with the necessary deviations. Navan station is to be sited at the site of Navan junction. (The original site on the former railway.)

Sounds good so far, doesn't it?

But Tom Finn stated that the costings in T21 for the project were not from IE and perhaps they came from the strategic rail review of 2003. Either way he wasn't sure where the figure was plucked from, but he was adamant that it was short by 200 million! Do the maths folks.

There's more!

The project would not recoup its build costs. It would cover its running costs, but not the cost of depreciation. Therefore the document reaches the conclusion that the project is not financially viable.

Of course this doesn't mean that the line won't be built, but I feel its is a very convenient method of placing it on the back burner. Yet again my "banjo bet" looks safe and a further prediction from Dero's crystal ball.......if the dept of finance don't fancy the monopoly money that the direct route will cost, then the Drogheda route looks like a sleeping possibility.

This particular report is almost identical to a previous report done by IE and MCC. (circa 19999) That too concluded running as far as Navan wasn't viable. In fact its recommendation was to run as far as Pace and build a huge P+R for Navan commuters. The more eagle eyed amongst you will remember a debate between Barry Kenny and I on the last word in mid 2005, where he tried to justify the Pace P+R as a suitable facility for Navan commuters. Thats what it was always meant to be. Of course in November 2005 T21 pulled a rabbit out of the hat by including Navan in the list. Apparently the money was "ringfenced". But according to Tom Finn today that "ringfenced" money is a tad short. (If its even there at all)

I don't like saying these things and I know I sound like the Eamonn Dunphy of transport, but I still don't believe that Navan or the Interconnector will be built. Alternatively, it could be Navan or the Interconnector. Take your pick. Meanwhile in the west, the WRC is on its merry way. And yes, it was mentioned by one councillor in Meath, who made the very funny point that "the WRC will carry 500 people a day and thats the population of Kilmessan!"

Thats all from the funny farm.

[Mark Gleeson]

So its exactly in line with the submission we made all that time ago, we wanted the Dunshaughlin deviation and we got it

And its nothing new that the project was going to be too expensive

[Derek Wheeler]

Ive posted more or less the same in a different thread which crossed with this one.

The only real points of interest in todays news in relation to P11/RUI are of course the sewer pipe and the fact that I went on record saying that the won't happen by 2015. The submission is merely routine and from my perspective unimportant as I never believed it would happen anyway. I say that with respect to my former colleagues here. The correspondence I have in relation to the project will make interesting reading and Im baking the humble pie for the few that will have to eat it. As I said in the other thread, Drogheda is now the only realistic hope for Navan.

What a mess.

[Mark Hennessy]

Originally Posted by Derek Wheeler

Ive posted more or less the same in a different thread which crossed with this one.

The only real points of interest in todays news in relation to P11/RUI are of course the sewer pipe and the fact that I went on record saying that the won't happen by 2015. The submission is merely routine and from my perspective unimportant as I never believed it would happen anyway. I say that with respect to my former colleagues here. The correspondence I have in relation to the project will make interesting reading and Im baking the humble pie for the few that will have to eat it. As I said in the other thread, Drogheda is now the only realistic hope for Navan.

What a mess.

Thanks for the update Derek, it doesn't shock me one bit now especially given the 5 year dithering over Midleton.

I'm firmly in the Interconnector not being built camp (well maybe by 2025) also

[Derek Wheeler]

Originally Posted by Mark Hennessy

Thanks for the update Derek, it doesn't shock me one bit now especially given the 5 year dithering over Midleton.

I'm firmly in the Interconnector not being built camp (well maybe by 2025) also

When this period in time is a period in history, it will be look back on as one of the greatest catastrophes in Irish Transport history. IE have embarassed the Government today because the Government did as the usually do...they acted like transport experts, when they are not. (remember metro, luas etc etc.) Navan has a rail line and with considerably less money and a bit of vision and creativity, it can have rail services. We were not mad when we proposed the Drogheda route. We were not mad when we said the sewer main displayed a lack of commitment to the original alignment. Navan has been treated like muck for years in terms of a rail connection. Blame your Government and never believe IE spin when they are drugged up on Government promises. The reality hit hard today and Im glad of that, but disappointed for Navan commuters. They have been sold a pup. Standby for more bull**** from your Government when this news hits the media. It will all be lies and more lies. T21 is a joke at the expense of citizens literally dieing from horrendous commutes.

As for the interconnector. Brilliant idea. IE are up for it. It needs to happen. Don't rule out IE scheming against Navan to protect it. But isn't it sad that we have to think like this.

[Mark Hennessy]

I just think the scandalous waste of our (brief) wealth from the boom times will come back to haunt us.

There has been little in the way of a capital legacy laid down for the people who helped fund the whole boom, the first time buyers out in places like Navan etc.

They have enslaved themselves to long mortgages, long commutes all to work hard to give up taxes for nothing in return. Truely sad state of affairs.

As an aside, before the election I was hassling my local candiate (Michael Fitzpatrick FF TD now) about how much room for improvement there was in the Maynooth line service and he turned to me and said in the most patronising manner about how lucky I was to have the service. How right the arrogant sh1te was.

[Derek Wheeler]

Originally Posted by Mark Hennessy

As an aside, before the election I was hassling my local candiate (Michael Fitzpatrick FF TD now) about how much room for improvement there was in the Maynooth line service and he turned to me and said in the most patronising manner about how lucky I was to have the service. How right the arrogant sh1te was.

Remember that moment Mark and never let it go. Tell your kids about it. Tell your grandchildren about it. Im not being melodramatic about this. Its a prime example of how politicians view public transport. Realistically, after years of wealth, what have we done in terms of rail transport?

[CSL]

Y'all will have a motorway ... Yee Ha . Don't forget it'll be tolled!

[Derek Wheeler]

Originally Posted by CSL

Y'all will have a motorway ... Yee Ha . Don't forget it'll be tolled!

A key point. Its where the Government failed to realise that modern European transport networks consisted of quality road and rail networks. We have yet to experience the death of inter city rail travel as motorways shorten journey times. But its coming. I predicted it long ago. Its a pity that Ireland didn't capitalise on lessons from elsewhere.

Anyway, Im divulging widely. This is about Navan and the implications.

[Mark Gleeson]

Originally Posted by Irish Times

€578m rail line to Navan 'not financially viable'
Elaine Keogh

The next phase in the reopening of the rail line from Dublin to Navan would cost €578 million, was "not financially viable" and "would require the full capital costs to be borne by the Government," councillors in Meath were told by Iarnród Éireann yesterday.

The reopening of the line is part of the Government's Transport 21 infrastructure programme and the first phase of the line, from Clonsilla to an interchange with the M3 at Pace near Dunboyne, is scheduled to open by 2010.

However, the study on the viability of continuing the line to Navan found that it was costly, and if the final route took in Dunshaughlin the cost would jump by another €55 million.

The report, drawn up by consultants Roughan & O'Donovan - Faber Maunsell revealed the emerging preferred route would use two-thirds of the pre-existing line, with an extension to create a station at Navan North to link in with an existing but disused line to Kingscourt.

Including construction, stock, land and property, the cost of the line is estimated at €455 million in 2007 terms.

However, with construction anticipated to take place between 2010 to 2012, that cost would rise to €578 million, with annual operating costs of €6.8 million in today's terms. The presentation to Meath County Council also heard the service could be operational by 2013 - two years ahead of the target date in Transport 21.

The journey time to Dublin from Navan would be approximately one hour, with trains every 15 minutes at peak times, and there would be stations at Pace, Drumree, Kilmessan, Navan Central and Navan North.

With a projected 5,300 trips each way from Dublin to Navan, it would have an anticipated financial return of 4.6 per cent, and therefore just meets the Department of Finance's threshold of 4 per cent.

Tom Finn from Iarnród Éireann told councillors that 85 per cent of the projected population growth would be needed to justify the development and "even the slightest drop in population could have a very significant impact on the rate of return." He acknowledged that "financially, you would not touch it with a barge pole because of the costs".

The scoping study ruled out spurs on the line to Ratoath, Ashbourne and Dunshaughlin, but the emerging preferred route does includes going close to Dunshaughlin.

It also said up to 25 per cent of the funding could be raised through development levies, with the balance sought from the exchequer. The report will now go to the Department of Finance.

© 2008 The Irish Times

Remember we said to would could 300 million (at 2004 prices), well we are proven right 455 less the rolling stock cost (which is normally separate) gives about 300 million

[Garrett]

So, as I understand it:
- Pace to Navan will never happen
- Drogheda to Navan could be a runner
- Financing a rail project to Navan could jeopardise finance for the Interconnector.

Those who always predicted this situation are justified in making it known that they were right all along. P11/RUI members do need to give themselves a pat on the back every now and then, and we need this for "attacking" IE and the government. However, I suppose RUI needs to quickly move on and deal with the scenario. I'm just a fly-on-the-wall member so I was wondering how the really active members think RUI policy will evolve on this issue?

[Mark Gleeson]

We predicted this more or less, Navan would be the first casualty.

The first person to let it slip was Dick Fearn CEO of IE who in a published interview clearly stated it wasn't a certainty that was back in spring 2006

In terms of the route, we where proven 100% on every single aspect. We didn't say East or West of Killmessan (west was the obvious choice) but everything else we got spot on. We did make a submission (so its on record for all to see) and we did speak at considerable length with the IE people working on the route choice right down to the manholes (proven right there as well)

On cost yet again we hit very close

We are not really in the infrastructure business for this very reason we know what should be done but there is very little support to achieve this

However it must be emphasised that the Navan line will cover its operational costs the WRC will not and the costs at todays prices are not much different

No annual passenger number quoted in the reports but we think its in the 2-2.5 million bracket

Its all speculation really until we see a copy of this report, it would be most inappropriate to issue a formal statement until that time

[Navan Junction]

Not speculation. I've read the report twice

[Derek Wheeler]

Originally Posted by Garrett

So, as I understand it:
- Pace to Navan will never happen
- Drogheda to Navan could be a runner
- Financing a rail project to Navan could jeopardise finance for the Interconnector.

Those who always predicted this situation are justified in making it known that they were right all along. P11/RUI members do need to give themselves a pat on the back every now and then, and we need this for "attacking" IE and the government. However, I suppose RUI needs to quickly move on and deal with the scenario. I'm just a fly-on-the-wall member so I was wondering how the really active members think RUI policy will evolve on this issue?

I am the blasphemor who poured scorn on the Navan project. I will rot in hell for my actions.

While no longer a committee member, I'd suggest that the Drogheda angle be taken off the shelf and put into the media again. IE themselves have now removed one of the reasons they used against this proposal. If the interconnector was built, then loads of trains could run from Navan on the northern line.

Drogheda would be the logical reaction from this organisation.

[Prof_Vanderjuice]

As a matter of interest, how many T21 rail projects are financially, as opposed to economically, viable? Pace isn't (http://www.meathontrack.com/uploads/...rt.pdf#page=26) and neither is Midleton (I can no longer locate the study online, but it's discussed on pages vii and viii, or 7 and 8 of the pdf - and probably at greater length elsewhere - for anybody with a saved or paper copy; the study states that "there are few rail projects which can be justified solely on financial grounds"). I think I remember reading somewhere that the only project emerging from the Dublin Suburban Rail Strategic Review as financially viable was the Phoenix Park Tunnel.

It might be that the economic results were unsatisfactory, but nobody's actually said so. Of course, the points about costings and population growth are valid ones.

[Mark Gleeson]

We need to see the report to see exactly what it says, what assumptions and so on

Midleton is in fact profitable

[Oisin88]

The Irish Times article above says:

With a projected 5,300 trips each way from Dublin to Navan, it would have an anticipated financial return of 4.6 per cent, and therefore just meets the Department of Finance's threshold of 4 per cent.

Does this not mean that from the DOF point of view it is financially viable?

[Navan Junction]

Yup, once born it will breath on it's own

Financially speaking that is

[Derek Wheeler]

Originally Posted by Navan Junction

Yup, once born it will breath on it's own

Financially speaking that is

Might be a very long pregnancy though.

Its also worth noting that IE havent just said its unviable on financial grounds. They have recommended that the project be abandoned. The longer people tolerate this charade and fool themselves into believing that the direct route will happen, the less likely Navan will get a rail service.