THE WRC

[Derek Wheeler]

COMING SOON! (Im too tired now)

A fascinating report in the Irish Media and covered by Today FM, that proves the WRC is nothing more than an election stunt.

As I have said over the last 3 years, this project will suck money from more important projects.

Whats about to be posted will make you laugh or cry, but definetly think.

[houstyl]

Might be stealing yer thunder a bit , but there was an article in this week's Clare People saying that the IE business case for Ennis-Athenry failed - this was found out under an FOI request. A memo from the Sec. General of the Dept. of Transport to Cullen stated that:

-it would fail an economic analysis
-its main use would be through 'connecting' Limerick and Galway whatever that
means
-the journey time would be 1hr 50 Limerick-Galway (my very rough maths
would tell me that gives a line speed on the Ennis-Athenry line of 50-60mph)
but 1 hr 22 between the outskirts of the two cities by 2014 by road
-passenger nos. of 100,000per annum rising to around 200,000 after 5 years

So in conclusion the line was reinstated for purely political reasons. Apparently the relaying of track begins in the summer/autumn.

[Navan Junction]

http://www.clarepeople.com/content/view/145/73/


Cullen ignored railway business case

THE Minister for Transport, Martin Cullen gave the go-ahead for the re-opening of the Ennis to Athenry rail-link, despite Iarnród Éireann submitting a business case stating that it would be loss-making and didn’t meet the economic criteria required for approval of large-scale capital projects.


Documents released to The Clare People through the Freedom of Information Act, show that consultants who reviewed the business case concluded that the re-opening of the line would be premature, but that the case might look more positive in the future as the population rose.


The Secretary General of the Department of Transport, Julie O’Neill, in a memo to Transport Minister Martin Cullen said that Iarnród Éireann’s business case gave rise to a number of concerns; the very poor results of the cost benefit analysis and the ongoing operating deficit which would be higher than the average subvention per passenger paid to Irish Rail in 2005.


Ms O’Neill also had concerns in relation to the modest level of patronage for the service anticipated – a projected 100,000 in year one rising to 200,000 in year five. She said, “This is equivalent to 600 passengers spread over seven services a day in each direction.” Ms O’Neill also stated that the rail-link had a poor competitive position compared to the Ennis to Galway Road.


She said that the expected rail journey between Limerick and Galway would be one hour and 50 minutes compared to the one hour and 22-minute drive between the city perimeters by 2014. Ms O’Neill said that the Western Rail Corridor scored highly in relation to non-quantifiable impacts, particularly by virtue of the connectivity benefits at local, regional and international levels.


Ms O’Neill put forward four options for Minister Cullen including deferring a decision on the project on the basis that it was premature and advancing instead the pace of road development instead.


Iarnród Éireann’s business case concedes that the scale of infrastructure costs along with the ongoing annual operating costs mean the projected passenger levels will not be adequate to generate a positive socio-economic result. The business case stated that the “economic return on the project is poor due to relatively modest volumes”.


After taking the advice of officials and consultants, Minister Cullen announced that works would commence on the re-instatement of the Ennis-Athenry line in 2007 with the line to re-open in 2008.

[Navan Junction]

As far as I remember there are 8 buses each between Sligo and Galway from state and private operators, though there are more between Galway and Limerick.

I don't know how that compares with around the country but there are 35 bus departures (can be of more than one bus) from Navan alone, 70 per day.

Never mind Trim, Kells, Virginia, Oldcastle etc etc and all of the one off departures from places like Rathcairn, Dunderry etc

I don't know lads, this is getting worse. Politicians just don't give a toss

Edit - actually, there may be more than that from Navan - there is more than one departure point. Not in the mood for checking now.

[Derek Wheeler]

Originally Posted by houstyl

Might be stealing yer thunder a bit , but there was an article in this week's Clare People saying that the IE business case for Ennis-Athenry failed - this was found out under an FOI request. A memo from the Sec. General of the Dept. of Transport to Cullen stated that:

-it would fail an economic analysis
-its main use would be through 'connecting' Limerick and Galway whatever that
means
-the journey time would be 1hr 50 Limerick-Galway (my very rough maths
would tell me that gives a line speed on the Ennis-Athenry line of 50-60mph)
but 1 hr 22 between the outskirts of the two cities by 2014 by road
-passenger nos. of 100,000per annum rising to around 200,000 after 5 years

So in conclusion the line was reinstated for purely political reasons. Apparently the relaying of track begins in the summer/autumn.

Fair play Houstly.

It also appeared in the Examiner on Wednesday. A slightly longer version.

[Derek Wheeler]

Originally Posted by Navan Junction

As far as I remember there are 8 buses each between Sligo and Galway from state and private operators, though there are more between Galway and Limerick.

I don't know how that compares with around the country but there are 35 bus departures (can be of more than one bus) from Navan alone, 70 per day.

Never mind Trim, Kells, Virginia, Oldcastle etc etc and all of the one off departures from places like Rathcairn, Dunderry etc

I don't know lads, this is getting worse. Politicians just don't give a toss

Edit - actually, there may be more than that from Navan - there is more than one departure point. Not in the mood for checking now.

I feel your pain.

[houstyl]

Originally Posted by Navan Junction

As far as I remember there are 8 buses each between Sligo and Galway from state and private operators, though there are more between Galway and Limerick.

I don't know how that compares with around the country but there are 35 bus departures (can be of more than one bus) from Navan alone, 70 per day.

Never mind Trim, Kells, Virginia, Oldcastle etc etc and all of the one off departures from places like Rathcairn, Dunderry etc

I don't know lads, this is getting worse. Politicians just don't give a toss

Edit - actually, there may be more than that from Navan - there is more than one departure point. Not in the mood for checking now.

Cheers for the article link NJ didn't realise it was online. 18 bus departure between Galway and Limerick a day between Citylink and Bus Eireann. IIRC the high level of bus departures to Navan was dragged up as an excuse for not opening the railway from Navan by he-whose-name-must-not-be-mentioned from TCD.

Anyway I would suspect that once the M3 is completed we'll see a similar memo pass between desks in the Dept. of Transport...

[Derek Wheeler]

Originally Posted by houstyl

Anyway I would suspect that once the M3 is completed we'll see a similar memo pass between desks in the Dept. of Transport...

I'd say its already been passed.

[Navan Junction]

Originally Posted by Derek Wheeler

I'd say its already been passed.

Yes. Sitting in a special file - To be leaked or for FOI

Ah well. It's down to politics.

[Derek Wheeler]

Quotes from the Examiner article.

However a business case put forward by Irish Rail, on the reopening of the first section (Ennis - Athenry) revealed the route would be loss making and it didn't meet the economic criteria required by the Dept. of Finance for aproval of large scale capital projects.
The business case - carried out after Minister Cullen announced the phased reopening of the western rail corridor over 10 years as part of Transport 21 - stated that the "economic return on the project is poor due to reletively modest volumes"

The documents also show that Goodbody independent review of Irish Rails business case concluded that the reopening of the first phase of the line "would be premature" and the case may look more positive in the future as the population rises.

Goodbody Economic Consultants found that the regional develepment benefits arising from the reopening "are unlikely to be significant" and that it is "difficult to cocur that the main justification for the investment relates to regional development"

[Derek Wheeler]

I would also like to announce that, completely independent of P11, I have decided to bring the issue of the WRC to the attention of the EU, on the basis of the Irish Governments rail investment policy, to include the Ballybrophy - Limerick route, Limerick - Waterford - Rosslare and proposed (but still delayed) reopenings that have undergone successful studies incorportaing land use strategies.

In my opinion it is disgraceful that existing lines like those mentioned above are starved of investment by way of infrastructure and services, while the Government dedicates funding to the reopening of a similar line despite professional reports recommending against and a "working group" being the only positive point concerning the entire project.

The entire playing field for rail reopenings and future investment has been decided on the basis of political gain instead of professional evaluation that could reflect the best interests of the Irish people.

Please not that this endeavour is a personal one, as I feel very strongly about the issue. It is not related to P11 in any way.

[Neworder]

I agree with the general P11 stance that there are far higher priorities for rail funding than the WRC today, and that emphasis should be given to projects which will benefit the greater population and need the limited resources available today.

However there is also a case to be made for regional balance and the fate of our smaller cities and towns, who’s tax payers though less in number also want quality transport infrastructure to remain competitive with the capital, attract employers, investment and workers. Dublin is a constantly expanding metropolitan area that will continue to demand the major share of rail investment foreseeable future. We are always complaining that our Government does not do enough to put infrastructure in place before demand arrives. Are we now against all subvention, is there no case to be made for investing in the regions to pre-empt future growth?

[Thomas J Stamp]

Originally Posted by Neworder

However there is also a case to be made for regional balance and the fate of our smaller cities and towns, who’s tax payers though less in number also want quality transport infrastructure to remain competitive with the capital, attract employers, investment and workers. Dublin is a constantly expanding metropolitan area that will continue to demand the major share of rail investment foreseeable future. We are always complaining that our Government does not do enough to put infrastructure in place before demand arrives. Are we now against all subvention, is there no case to be made for investing in the regions to pre-empt future growth?

Yes, I agree, in fact that is the flip side of our position.

The WRC debate has been done so much here and on Boards.ie and IRN that I feel a mixture of weariness and fatigue in commenting on it. On the one hand what you say is perfectly correct. On the other hand, that argument goes out the window when you look at phases two and three of the WRC. This rail line will not attract that sort of investment to justify its asset or running costs in those two phases. The amount of parallel infrastructure needed (industry, commercial development, housing development) is not feasible, unless you are talking over a very extended period of time.

Now, of course, you can pull off an old accounting trick of extrapulating the base asset costs as against the wasting nature of the asset into infinity and end up with a theoretical zero subsidy. In effect this is the argument being made for phases two and three - that as the line will be there for ever it must eventually attract investment and therefore will eventually turn a profit. This flies against any conventional wisdom. No rail line has done that since Victorian Times. The WRC is a passenger only experience, as IE has so little Freight as to be irrelevant. Any freight that goes to the west anyway (the Norfolk liners) gets there right now, and doesnt need any new track to bring it.

Lets put it another way. The spokesperson for WoT on The Last Word on Wednesday had to pull a particular rabbit from the bag to justify the WRC in Toto. The Goodbody review mentioned 120,000 people using the WRC over a year, the WoT spokesman stated that "Ennis - Limerick is part of the WRC and that brings in 120,000 a year so the WRC is already operating at the Capacity of the Goodbody review" in order words phase one will mean that the review is wrong. The plain fact that 3/4 of those on the Ennis-Limerick li9ne are heading to Dublin was not raised.

If you have to pull stunts like that, well, make your own conclusions.