Bad news for some rail plans

[ThomasJ]

from breaking news
http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/g...me-466856.html

The Government has rescheduled major parts of its decentralisation programme, and shelved two large rail projects as part of its revised capital investment plan unveiled by Taoiseach Brian Cowen this afternoon.

Under the programme, €39bn will be spent over the next five years, with a shift away from spending on roads in favour of public transport, and a considerable investment in water infrastructure, and school building.

The plan will fund the move by Dublin Institute of Technology to a new site at Grangegorman and will also allow for the construction of Metro North in Dublin.

However, the Dublin to Navan rail line and the Tuam to Claremorris line have been postponed and there will be no new investment in the Luas.

Plans to move the Department of Education to Mullingar and the Department of Enterprise to Carlow will not now proceed.

The Government estimates that 30,000 jobs will be supported by the programme.

[ThomasJ]

and RTE

Metro is part of €39 billion plan
Monday, 26 July 2010 13:29
The Government has announced its new capital spending plans in the light of the economic downturn.

Among the revised proposals are plans to lease instead of building infrastructure and commitments to proceed with the Metro North project and the Dart Underground in Dublin.

The Government plans to spend €39 billion on infrastructure between now and 2016. The overall project has been cut by €1 billion for this year.

AdvertisementTaoiseach Brian Cowen said proportionately it was one of the highest spends on capital in the EU.

He said the plans will indirectly create 270,000 jobs between now and 2016.

There is a commitment to Metro North, linking the Luas lines and the Dart Underground link, subject to final Government approval.

There are also spending plans for water services, schools, health and housing regeneration in Limerick and Ballymun in Dublin.

[ThomasJ]

Department of Transport
§ The programme of investment pursued over the past decade has transformed the
quality and quantity of the stock of transport capital and the infrastructure deficit
VIII
which previously characterised the transport network in Ireland has been
significantly addressed.
§ The expanded capacity levels achieved are likely to be sufficient to meet anticipated
demand over the medium term in most areas.
§ Nonetheless, further targeted investment has the potential to unlock productive
capacity in the economy and enhance national competitiveness. Such investment will
also offer alternatives to car transport, thereby reducing emissions and enabling the
transport sector to cater for the demands associated with longer term population
and employment growth in a sustainable manner.
§ Projects recommended for investment are the completion of the Major Inter Urban-
Routes (MIUs), and a number of remaining national roads projects of key strategic
importance, such as aspects of the Atlantic Route Corridor and the N11. In addition
to these projects, essential maintenance and a continued high level of investment in
the regional roads network will be required.
§ The Renewed Programme for Government commits to the advancement of Metro
North and Dart Underground projects and, accordingly, the reprioritised Envelope set
out for the Department of Transport also includes the upfront exchequer funding for
these projects. Other public transport investment to be prioritised includes
investment in the rail safety and traffic management programmes and continued
planning of future priorities.
§ Increased investment is also needed in walking and cycling infrastructure given the
potentially large number of trips that can be accommodated on these
environmentally sustainable modes.

http://www.finance.gov.ie/documents/...italreview.pdf note this is a fairly big pdf document

[ThomasJ]

more information

4.3.2 Public Transport Programme

As in the case of roads investment, capital expenditure in this programme over the course of
NDP 2000-2006 and into the current Plan has driven a step change in the public transport
network in Ireland. Among the most significant achievements of this investment in the
Greater Dublin Area are:
§ The Luas light rail system;
§ Enhanced Dart and rail capacity; and
§ An expanded and upgraded bus fleet.
Outside of Dublin, major steps forward were taken in the form of the renewal of large parts
of the rail network and rolling stock and improvements to bus capacity, frequency and
accessibility in the regional cities.
The changing economic conditions will have implications for required capacity in public
transport infrastructure. As discussed at Section 2, many of the factors which have driven
demand for capital investment over the past number of years are experiencing reversals in
trends. These patterns are of particular relevance regarding demand for public transport: a
significant fall in house completions and a reduction in numbers of people commuting owing
to increasing unemployment will serve to dampen demand for public transport infrastructure
in the short-medium term. Accordingly any reprioritisation of capital spending in this area
must be cognisant of the economic inefficiency of excess capacity in the absence of matching
demand. Nonetheless, there is a significant time lag at play in public transport infrastructure
provision from the point at which the decision is made to provide it, through to design,
planning and construction – especially with rail projects – and therefore, a focus should be
kept on medium-long term demand projections. Where budgetary constraints dictate a
slowdown in project delivery in the short-medium term, it is important to protect future
infrastructure provision by continuing to invest, as appropriate, in project planning in order
25
that projects are ready, ‘on the shelf’, for delivery when finance becomes available and
pending a continuing economic case and relative priority.

Commuter Rail Services
Key strategic projects being prioritised include Navan Rail Line Phase 1 and the Luas
Cherrywood extension and these are expected to be complete in 2010. In addition, the
Citywest Luas will be operational in early 2011 and a railway order in respect of Phase 2 of
the Navan Line is currently being prepared. This is in addition to the completion of the DART
upgrade (extended trains and platforms), enhancements to interurban rail services and the
opening of Cork to Midleton commuter line, the completion of Phase 1 of the Western Rail
Corridor, the Kildare Route Project and the Luas extension to Docklands.
The Renewed Programme for Government establishes Metro North and the DART
Underground programme as the key medium-term public transport priorities. Spending in this
area will be complemented by investment in ongoing public transport programmes such as
the Railway Safety and Traffic Management Programmes and in progressing the planning of
potential future public transport investment.
Since the initial investment in Luas, there has been further capacity expansion. In 2008,
trams were expanded from 30 metres to 40 metres on the red line (Tallaght – Connolly
Station)20. On this mode too however, passenger numbers are in decline: users fell by 1
million in 2008 and by close to 2 million in 200921. It is therefore reasonable to conclude that
no new expansion of capacity on the existing Luas lines should take place in the mediumterm
as existing capacity will be sufficient to cater for demand. Planning and design work on
other metro and light rail projects should continue with a view to commencement of
construction when economic circumstances allow and demand necessitates.
Mainline rail
Considerable investment has been made in enhancing mainline rail infrastructure over the
last decade or so. The rail track has been renewed, the rolling stock has been substantially
replaced and modernised and new lines have been opened or are scheduled to open in the
near future. In recent times however - as is the case of other modes discussed - demand for
rail services is in decline. Passenger numbers fell in 2008 and again this trend intensified in
2009.

20 Department of Transport (2009) Annual Output Statement 2008
21 Data received from RPA
26
Given this substantial investment, the enhancement of roads between our main cities (which
also facilitates bus-based public transport), and the fall-off in demand, investment until 2016
should focus on maintenance of existing infrastructure, capacity enhancing projects aimed at
removing speed restrictions, essential safety-related work and progressing the planning of
potential future investment.

[Mark Gleeson]

Navan was always a question mark, the numbers didn't work out on paper and well the country is different now. The property development levies are not going to pay 50%. Same goes for Luas.

Its a pity though could have carried 2 million a year

[ThomasJ]

more

4.4.2 Public Transport Programme
As mentioned above, Metro North and the DART Underground (and associated projects) are
provided for in the Renewed Programme for Government and accordingly comprise the vast
bulk of investment in this Programme in the period to 2016. Both Metro North and Dart
Underground are being progressed as PPP projects and it must be noted that continued
substantial Exchequer expenditure will be required over the next 25-30 years to repay the
private financing element.
Outside of these projects – beyond essential maintenance and safety-related work – the
primary focus should be on the continuation of planning of future priorities and, as in the
case of the cross-city Luas line, carrying out preliminary work, where appropriate, to minimise
future construction impacts .
Table 4.1 illustrates the financial allocation to the programme of capital investment in the
Transport sector in the years to 2016 including provision for:
§ The completion of a range of public transport projects at advanced planning and
implementation stage;
§ Metro North;
§ DART Underground and associated projects;
§ The completion of the MIUs;
§ The commencement of a number of key strategic national road priority projects
(including progression of the Atlantic Corridor and the N11) and essential
maintenance of the national network;
§ Funding for ongoing local and regional road maintenance and improvement;
§ Funding for ongoing public transport programmes including the rail safety and traffic
management programmes; and
§ Funding for ongoing planning.

[ThomasJ]

and finally expected results

4.5 Anticipated Outcomes of Investment
In the years to 2016 Government will

§ Invest in excess of €12 billion in building a sustainable and economically valuable
transport network and services;
§ Prioritise appropriate public transport responses and initiatives;
§ Complete the major inter-urban road routes and initiate a number of key road
projects of strategic economic importance; and
§ Make significant investment in local and regional road improvements helping to support direct employment.
Planning for future investment projects will also continue, alongside investment in important
programmes such as rail safety and traffic management.
The benefits of this investment will be significant and some highlights of the outcomes to be
achieved include:
§ Journey time on all our major inter-urban road connections will be significantly
reduced
M1
Belfast/Dublin 2 hours
N4/
N6 Galway/Dublin 2 hours
N7
Limerick/Dublin 2 hours
N8
Cork/Dublin 2 hours 30 minutes
N9
Waterford/Dublin 1 hour 45 minutes
M20
Limerick/Cork 50 minutes
§ By 2016, the Luas will be carrying 42 million passengers and remove 12 million car
trips from the road network annually
§ In its first year of operation, Metro North will remove 13 million car trips from the
road network
§ Passenger numbers on the DART and Greater Dublin Area commuter network will
grow from a 2009 base of 29 million toward a target of 36 million
§ The Road Safety Strategy will target continuing the downward trend in road deaths.
§ Investment in cycling and pedestrian infrastructure will result in increased modal
shares for each
These achievements will be significant and will contribute to enhanced environmental
outcomes along with unlocking productive capacity in the economy.

[Colm Moore]

Its interesting to read the 2005 documents and see how much hasn't been achieved.

[dowlingm]

If M3-Navan is off the table surely Tuam-Athenry must be also, not merely Tuam-Claremorris?

It's difficult to say they MUST complete Navan even though I believe it to be strategically important, simply because one feels that the interconnector isn't out of the woods yet and even if the tunnel is built we could see cheaping out such as de-electrifying Connolly-Bray services (rather than electrifying the Connolly-Maynooth section) to reduce the required EMU order, and the existing fleet supplemented only enough to make Malahide-Hazelhatch work, plus we must hope that IE do not succumb to the temptation to defer projects like the resignalling of Limerick and the Sixmilebridge loop, and the Limerick Junction East Platform which are not striking projects but will help IE squeeze more out of what they already have.

The table on page 30 is important though - government are now desperate for tax and to keep employment numbers up and "capital" spend which skews more to labour than equipment and materials will be more in favour than rail which is unfortunately a pricey item on a capital basis.

[finnyus]

Can anyone shed any light on the status of Athenry - Tuam? Will this section go ahead?

[Mark Gleeson]

Originally Posted by finnyus

Can anyone shed any light on the status of Athenry - Tuam? Will this section go ahead?

Its not listed, but equally not on the drop list. Classic political trick. Highly unlikely

[ThomasJ]

Has the electrification of the maynooth line been deferred?

[Mark Gleeson]

This is the usual wishy washy Transport 21 again. The full details are not known

But from the capital costs quoted it appears the full electrification of the Maynooth, Northern and Kildare line to Hazelhatch are included.

[finnyus]

Originally Posted by Mark Gleeson

...

But from the capital costs quoted it appears the full electrification of the Maynooth, Northern and Kildare line to Hazelhatch are included.

Just a quick, off topic, will the electrification of the Kildare line to Hazelhatch include all 4 lines or just the slow lines?

[Mark Gleeson]

Centre two only but might include all tracks in the Inchicore area

[dowlingm]

MarkG when you say electric included were you estimating the cost including or excluding rolling stock?

[eugene]

Just a follow up question, does this still allow the Maynooth section to be completed earlier that the Northern and Kildare lines, as was suggested by Irish Rail themselves?..

[Mark Gleeson]

Funding is available for the electrification of Maynooth/Pace to Connolly, Hazelhatch to Inchicore and Balbriggan, Drogheda is a question mark

The money is there for the complete project including the trains.

I would expect Maynooth line first, then Northern line then west of Inchicore. Bear in mind if the cash runs out west of Inchicore has the weakest return

[finnyus]

Originally Posted by Mark Gleeson

Funding is available for the electrification of Maynooth/Pace to Connolly, Hazelhatch to Inchicore and Balbriggan, Drogheda is a question mark

The money is there for the complete project including the trains.

I would expect Maynooth line first, then Northern line then west of Inchicore. Bear in mind if the cash runs out west of Inchicore has the weakest return

Is there any schedule in place for this work Mark, do you know?

[comcor]

I assume the stations in Kilbarry and Blarney are also on the missing list?