For a start, I assume the Push-pull Mk IIIs are to be retained. This means that retaining at least some of the ordinary Mk IIIs makes some sense (common parts, etc etc).
There should be a role for at least 2 MkIII sets if the Belfast service is to be seriously enhanced. There is at present a standby MKII set at Connolly; should it graduate to a MK III? Also while the Cork service has 7 MKIVs in service with one on standby, this will not always be possible when the standby is in for serious repairs, so you will need a MK III standby at Heuston. Finally there might be demand for one or two MK III sets if the 6-car Rotem sets are not enough for the principal Intercity routes.
So there is a case for retention and possible serious refurbishment of maybe half the MK III fleet. However IE don't seem to do refurbishment very well; they prefer to get lots of free capital from the Exchequer for new stock. There will be plenty of locos for the MK IIIs; the only problem is increased operating costs for running around and increased track wear. I would like to see a serious study of the costs and benefits of MK III retention versus the alternatives.
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