Waterford Rosslare to close

Alan French · 05-09-2010, 16:42

I have looked through the NTA’s report, and the thing that strikes me is that they are repeating some of the flawed logic behind the arguments originally used for closing railways. They don’t seem to have some of the basic expertise in how the market for public transport works (but then, at lot of people haven’t).

The theory was always that buses could do the job adequately at lower cost. The NTA are using the same old arguments about buses being more flexible and having lower running costs – now they can add to that by saying there will be less emissions. What actually happened in the past was that less people used the replacement bus, since some now went by car and others travelled less often. So the result was more car journeys, less travelling overall, and perhaps not even a saving in public funds.

Connecting traffic on the adjoining lines was also lost. Closures undermined the system as a whole. See how the NTA were dismissive of the SERA’s including the whole route to Limerick Junction in their study – which shows that they don’t realise how inter-dependent each line is on its adjoining lines. (I have elaborated on this in Galway <---> Limerick: The slowest train in Europe? #15.)

Do you notice that the same arguments about buses being cheaper and more flexible, and the roads being so much better now, could be used to justify the closure of many other lines in Ireland? And I don’t just mean Galway-Limerick; on several of the radial routes their line of reason would justify replacement by buses.

There are also implications for introducing frequent train services where there is already a parallel bus route. Trains and buses tend to develop distinct but overlapping markets, because trains have a better record at getting people out of their cars. The growth in inter-city buses hasn’t destroyed the market for the parallel railways – even when the buses are faster.

Notice the contrast: the NTA’s argument is that buses will do the existing train’s job adequately. The SERA focuses on untapped potential (as we have been doing). We could put the question this way: since increased frequency has been so successful on other routes (both rail and bus), why single out certain routes for not getting an increased frequency? If you say that the radial routes are obvious cases whereas Rosslare-Waterford isn’t, then I would say that today’s high frequencies on other routes (hourly or two-hourly) would have been dismissed as ridiculous 40 years ago. “Where would you find the passengers,” people would ask mockingly.

I write this because the NTA is obviously not familiar with these lines of reason. This isn’t surprising; anyone familiar with economics and business generally, but not experienced in public transport, is likely to hold the same set of mistaken assumptions that led to the earlier closures. We have job on our hands educating people about this.

Meanwhile, on the matter of the closure notice: IR are planning to go ahead with the closure on the basis of their earlier notice. I understand that the details of the alternative bus service are a legal part of the notice. Now they say they are entering negotiations with BE. Are they not legally obliged to go with the timetable they have already announced, or else issue a new notice and wait two months? Does anyone know?

A point no one has mentioned: at present I reckon that the train from Rosslare also runs the 12.30 Waterford to Limerick Junction and its return journey at 15.10. What will happen to these?

I don't think it's time to give up yet. There could still be pressure at political level.

Colm Moore · 05-09-2010, 22:31

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan French

and the roads being so much better now

But has Rosslare-Waterford got much better? While a few short sections of road have been widened, there has been no major improvement since the Wexford Bypass, opened about 1988. Although the Waterford Bypass does marginally affect things as less traffic is coming in through Ferrycarraig. There is the issue though that traffic expands to fill available road capacity.

dowlingm · 06-09-2010, 03:17

On Morning Ireland the Information Minister rubbished the notion that more services builds ridership.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dick Fearn

‘Frequency of service is very, very low. When I came here I got out the working timetable and I thought: Where’s all the trains!? Five to Galway a day! Even Cork has 2 1/2 hour gaps between trains. We have to ramp up frequency. The very positive stance of the Irish government means we have the opportunity to do this.

dowlingm · 06-09-2010, 03:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alan French

I reckon that the train from Rosslare also runs the 12.30 Waterford to Limerick Junction and its return journey at 15.10. What will happen to these?

Hopefully, the 2700 gets redeployed to a Carlow-Waterford commuter or Clonmel-Waterford commuter and continues as before. (Preferably not sitting on its ass in Waterford for 3 hours).

However, the Limerick Junction-Waterford section is cleared for 3 car 22Ks so maybe one of the Dublin-Waterford sets gets used pending the next swing of the axe.

Colm Moore · 09-09-2010, 19:46

http://irishrail.ie/news_centre/news.asp?action=view&news_id=900

Quote:

Waterford to Rosslare line - service termination and bus replacement details by Corporate Communications

Waterford to Rosslare Europort line rail services will continue operating up to and including Saturday 18th September.

From Monday 20th September, rail services will be terminated, and customers can avail of the new Bus Éireann schedule operating from that date – full timetable details below.

Existing rail season tickets will be accepted on bus services, and fares on the Bus Éireann services will replicate existing rail fares.

Iarnród Éireann and Bus Éireann thank customers for their cooperation with these arrangements.

Please click here for the Bus Éireann Timetable http://www.irishrail.ie/upload/370.pdf

iknowwhereiamgoing · 12-09-2010, 17:36

Very bad new indeed. The commitment to maintain this line in order that it could be reopened if conditions improve. Does that mean letting the line deteriorate to the condition of the Midleton - Youghal line. In which case the whole line would have to be rebuilt at great cost. Is there a commitment to send a weed killing train down the line to keep it clear of weeds. Why have I.E. given up on trying to attract frieght to the railway? Why no attempt to trial a decent timetable on this line and others? Do they not take into account the green benefits of railways. If Railways were run strictly on profit and loss there would be little or no railways left. This is one of Irelands most scenic lines, why no thought given to heritage use. What a boost for tourism. No thinking outside the box.

Alan French · 12-09-2010, 18:58

I would actually say the closure is not really a matter of profit and loss. Comparing income and revenue for one part of the system is misleading, because it doesn't take into account the inter-dependence of all parts of the rail network.

If IR were really commercially competent, they would run a more frequent service on the whole corridor from Rosslare to Galway, so that each part would contribute connecting passengers to the radial lines from Dublin. That could well cover the fixed costs associated with running these lines.

It is sad to see that in 2010 there are still people who will quote income and revenue figures for separate parts of the system, and fool some people into thinking that taxpayers' money is being saved by the closure. This is deceptive, and should really be called fraudulent accounting.

Here's a thought. If an independent company gets to run the line, they will presumably run trains to suit connections with IR trains at Waterford (for both lines). IR will benefit, whether they like it or not!

corktina · 13-09-2010, 11:42

i don't think thwere will be many (and less in the future) passengers willing to take a stopping train in the wrong direction only to stand on a cold platform waiting for a connection when they could stay in their cars and get there quicker AND cheaper. The Motorway Age will be a big problem for many Irish Rail lines.

iknowwhereiamgoing · 13-09-2010, 20:43

If there is a decent and frequent timetable, proper connections to the rest of the network then people will use the line. Just because there are motorways that does not mean that everyone will dersert the railways. If however, there is a sparse timetable, trains that run at times that are not convenient for the traveller and poor conections then that sort of thing will drive passengers to their cars. We must not give up on this line or the railways in general. If they are Properly run and managed thet will prove their worth. These lines survived the 1970's and 80's when railways were not in vogue and were unappreciated by many people. I can't believe that lines are being closed in this so called green age. No one has made any real effort to run or promote this line properly. Not only is the line a vital part of the network but also very scenic, think tourism, think a regular steam hauled special like that run in the Highlands of Scotland. To agument the regular service. Also the amount of frieght carried on the network is an absolue discrace.

12-09-2010, 17:36	#6
iknowwhereiamgoing New to the board Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 11	Waterford to Rosslare Closure Very bad new indeed. The commitment to maintain this line in order that it could be reopened if conditions improve. Does that mean letting the line deteriorate to the condition of the Midleton - Youghal line. In which case the whole line would have to be rebuilt at great cost. Is there a commitment to send a weed killing train down the line to keep it clear of weeds. Why have I.E. given up on trying to attract frieght to the railway? Why no attempt to trial a decent timetable on this line and others? Do they not take into account the green benefits of railways. If Railways were run strictly on profit and loss there would be little or no railways left. This is one of Irelands most scenic lines, why no thought given to heritage use. What a boost for tourism. No thinking outside the box.

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05-09-2010, 16:42	#1
Alan French Member Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 89	I have looked through the NTA’s report, and the thing that strikes me is that they are repeating some of the flawed logic behind the arguments originally used for closing railways. They don’t seem to have some of the basic expertise in how the market for public transport works (but then, at lot of people haven’t). The theory was always that buses could do the job adequately at lower cost. The NTA are using the same old arguments about buses being more flexible and having lower running costs – now they can add to that by saying there will be less emissions. What actually happened in the past was that less people used the replacement bus, since some now went by car and others travelled less often. So the result was more car journeys, less travelling overall, and perhaps not even a saving in public funds. Connecting traffic on the adjoining lines was also lost. Closures undermined the system as a whole. See how the NTA were dismissive of the SERA’s including the whole route to Limerick Junction in their study – which shows that they don’t realise how inter-dependent each line is on its adjoining lines. (I have elaborated on this in Galway <---> Limerick: The slowest train in Europe? #15.) Do you notice that the same arguments about buses being cheaper and more flexible, and the roads being so much better now, could be used to justify the closure of many other lines in Ireland? And I don’t just mean Galway-Limerick; on several of the radial routes their line of reason would justify replacement by buses. There are also implications for introducing frequent train services where there is already a parallel bus route. Trains and buses tend to develop distinct but overlapping markets, because trains have a better record at getting people out of their cars. The growth in inter-city buses hasn’t destroyed the market for the parallel railways – even when the buses are faster. Notice the contrast: the NTA’s argument is that buses will do the existing train’s job adequately. The SERA focuses on untapped potential (as we have been doing). We could put the question this way: since increased frequency has been so successful on other routes (both rail and bus), why single out certain routes for not* getting an increased frequency?* If you say that the radial routes are obvious cases whereas Rosslare-Waterford isn’t, then I would say that today’s high frequencies on other routes (hourly or two-hourly) would have been dismissed as ridiculous 40 years ago. “Where would you find the passengers,” people would ask mockingly. I write this because the NTA is obviously not familiar with these lines of reason. This isn’t surprising; anyone familiar with economics and business generally, but not experienced in public transport, is likely to hold the same set of mistaken assumptions that led to the earlier closures. We have job on our hands educating people about this. Meanwhile, on the matter of the closure notice: IR are planning to go ahead with the closure on the basis of their earlier notice. I understand that the details of the alternative bus service are a legal part of the notice. Now they say they are entering negotiations with BE. Are they not legally obliged to go with the timetable they have already announced, or else issue a new notice and wait two months? Does anyone know? A point no one has mentioned: at present I reckon that the train from Rosslare also runs the 12.30 Waterford to Limerick Junction and its return journey at 15.10. What will happen to these? I don't think it's time to give up yet. There could still be pressure at political level.

12-09-2010, 18:58	#7
Alan French Member Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 89	I would actually say the closure is not really a matter of profit and loss. Comparing income and revenue for one part of the system is misleading, because it doesn't take into account the inter-dependence of all parts of the rail network. If IR were really commercially competent, they would run a more frequent service on the whole corridor from Rosslare to Galway, so that each part would contribute connecting passengers to the radial lines from Dublin. That could well cover the fixed costs associated with running these lines. It is sad to see that in 2010 there are still people who will quote income and revenue figures for separate parts of the system, and fool some people into thinking that taxpayers' money is being saved by the closure. This is deceptive, and should really be called fraudulent accounting. Here's a thought. If an independent company gets to run the line, they will presumably run trains to suit connections with IR trains at Waterford (for both lines). IR will benefit, whether they like it or not!

13-09-2010, 11:42	#8
corktina Regular Poster Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 47	i don't think thwere will be many (and less in the future) passengers willing to take a stopping train in the wrong direction only to stand on a cold platform waiting for a connection when they could stay in their cars and get there quicker AND cheaper. The Motorway Age will be a big problem for many Irish Rail lines.

13-09-2010, 20:43	#9
iknowwhereiamgoing New to the board Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 11	If there is a decent and frequent timetable, proper connections to the rest of the network then people will use the line. Just because there are motorways that does not mean that everyone will dersert the railways. If however, there is a sparse timetable, trains that run at times that are not convenient for the traveller and poor conections then that sort of thing will drive passengers to their cars. We must not give up on this line or the railways in general. If they are Properly run and managed thet will prove their worth. These lines survived the 1970's and 80's when railways were not in vogue and were unappreciated by many people. I can't believe that lines are being closed in this so called green age. No one has made any real effort to run or promote this line properly. Not only is the line a vital part of the network but also very scenic, think tourism, think a regular steam hauled special like that run in the Highlands of Scotland. To agument the regular service. Also the amount of frieght carried on the network is an absolue discrace.