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Unread 29-10-2019, 12:04   #1
James Shields
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Default Mark on Prime Time

Here's a brief clip from Prime Time featuring Mark Gleeson talking about overcrowding and ordering more coaches.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nezz...ature=youtu.be
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Unread 30-10-2019, 09:54   #2
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An interesting clip, but it raises more questions than it answers.

First, it implies that there are 41 "carriages" (DMU vehicles) which will arrive late 2020 or sometime in 2021, Is this the mooted 2nd-hand pruchase/lease of UK units? I have heard that this deal fell through when the asking price shot up due to an emerging shortage of rolling stock in the UK, which of course should cause a re-evaluation of refurbishing the 2700s

Second, no mention of the hoped-for new stock partly to cater for extended electrification.

Third, no mention of any move at all on the necessary fixed equipment (OHLE, substations, etc) for electrification.

Fourth, no acknowledgement that the constraint on peak hour capacity is not just rolling stock, but also track layout and signalling at pinch points.

A final point is that journalists appear to be woefully ignorant about railway operations, and don't know what critical questions to ask. Also they can be easily fobbed off with corporate bulls**t.
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Unread 30-10-2019, 10:46   #3
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The 41 carriages are middle 22000 carriages which have yet to be ordered. IE had said in service by mid 2021 but its going to be mid 2022 unless NTA get a move on.

There is no leased stock from UK, NTA just wasted time and money and not held accountable for there actions.
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Unread 30-10-2019, 10:47   #4
James Shields
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I think I know the answer to the first question. I believe there is the possibility of ordering additional middle coaches from Hyundai/Rotem to lengthen the 22000 sets. I believe this is only about adding capacity to existing services, not about new sets for additional services. I'm not sure if this is just a possibility, or if the cheque has been signed.

I agree with all your other points. The only questions being asked are about adding capacity to the existing services.

It mentions a rise in train usage to 75 million journeys over the next 6 years. 41 extra coaches certainly won't be sufficient to cater for that.
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Unread 30-10-2019, 16:53   #5
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I've just had a look at the websites of members of "The Circus" (i.e the TII, the NTA, DOT, and IE ) to see what they have to say about investment in rail transport.

TII have some stuff about LUAS, but apart from longer Green Line trams, there is virtually nothing. Apparently heavy rail has nothing to do with transport infrastructure.

NTA have a 1-minute video on Dart Expansion: purely promotional with nothing of operational significance. Incidentally the photo beside the link to the video shows a 2600 railcar at Cork, complete with (now removed) semaphore signals. Really on the ball are the NTA.

DOT have virtually nothing to add to the previous two, except the inevitable front page photo of a grinning Shane Ross.

IE have some more detail, but also stuff like mention of a line to Navan, with a note saying this project is deferred. They also have stuff on a new rail control centre, as well as the city centre signalling project which of course is a project that has been going on for decades. On DART expansion there is more detail on the IE site, but no timelines. The list of things to do to the fixed infrastructure is quite detailed and clearly an urgent start is needed to get any real results within a decade.

I know websites are not the whole story, but they do tell us something. The standout for me is that everything is structured so that delays or indecision can always be attributed to other members of The Circus. That way no-one can take any blame, apart perhaps from the smiling clown in the centre ring.
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Unread 30-10-2019, 17:31   #6
Jamie2k9
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So approval today for 41 carriages.

The price tag jumped 50 million to 150 million or 3.6m per carriage. The previous orders were about 2.2-4 million per coach.

Anyone explain how there is such a price jump?

https://www.nationaltransport.ie/wp-...ete_Online.pdf

Last edited by Jamie2k9 : 30-10-2019 at 17:37.
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Unread 30-10-2019, 17:48   #7
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Well the cynical answer is simple economics. In the original tender there were multiple bidders competing for the contract. I would assume that if there was any option for extra units in the original contract, it's long expired. Bottom line is there is only one supplier (and certainly only one supplier who can produce them reasonably quickly), and I have to pay what they want to charge.

A slightly less cynical answer is that Hyundai/Rotem have to dust off a 12-year old design for a relatively small production run, so it's only natural that costs have risen.
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Unread 30-10-2019, 17:53   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by James Shields View Post
Well the cynical answer is simple economics. In the original tender there were multiple bidders competing for the contract. I would assume that if there was any option for extra units in the original contract, it's long expired. Bottom line is there is only one supplier (and certainly only one supplier who can produce them reasonably quickly), and I have to pay what they want to charge.

A slightly less cynical answer is that Hyundai/Rotem have to dust off a 12-year old design for a relatively small production run, so it's only natural that costs have risen.
This is the original contract another operator couldnt bid to produce them. Yes figures are from 2016 and they would have approached H/R for estimates. 50% increase in 3 years is very high but given the NTA are in charge should I be surprised.

The price made this an attractive option back then (and time), a new fleet could be got for 150 million to do actual commuter work. The benefits are long gone!

Last edited by Jamie2k9 : 30-10-2019 at 18:08.
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Unread 30-10-2019, 21:58   #9
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This link is interesting: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/irel...mand-1.3813067

So in March of this year they hoped for 60 to 80 used UK DMUs plus 41 new intermediate units for strengthening the ICR fleet. The 60 to 80 UK units seem to have fallen by the wayside, leaving the 41 Rotems. A gigantic step backwards. By the way is the latter definitely signed and sealed?

The more newspaper reports one reads the more the impression of things being changed from month to month. Does anyone really know what's going on? And I include The Circus employees in that.
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Unread 31-10-2019, 16:47   #10
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I really thought the idea of UK stock was a bit far fetched. The UK have brought in quite a bit of new stock in the last few years, but most trains being replaced are close to their end of life, and I suspect many would be difficult to make comply with current safety standards. What do we want - Pacers?

The 41 extra coaches are at best a stop gap measure to alleviate the worst overcrowding, but I would expect most of that extra capacity will be immediately filled as soon as they arrive.

I believe there's also a process in place to order up to 600 new DART coaches, which would be a mix of all-electric and bi-mode units (I'm not sure whether a decision has been made on whether they will be diesel-electric or battery-electric yet). I think the earliest these would begin to enter service is around 2024.

It should be noted that the 8100 DART coaches will be 40 years old at this point. They still look good after their mid-life refurb, but part of the new order will probably be replacing them.

This should free up most of the Diesel stock serving the Dublin commuter routes, allowing them to cascade on to other routes.

However a lot of uncomfortable commuters until they arrive, and expect politicians to delay the funding and push things back a few extra years.
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Unread 31-10-2019, 17:50   #11
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The potential GB stock was Class 185 units that were coming off lease from Transpennine Express (TPE), not pacers.

These would have been suitable units, but there has been slippage in the rollout of new TPE trains and they may now be required elsewhere on the GB network.
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Unread 31-10-2019, 20:33   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by berneyarms View Post
The potential GB stock was Class 185 units that were coming off lease from Transpennine Express (TPE), not pacers.

These would have been suitable units, but there has been slippage in the rollout of new TPE trains and they may now be required elsewhere on the GB network.
The chances of 185s coming were always very low, nobody in IE taught it was even a serious proposal.
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Unread 01-11-2019, 13:54   #13
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Posted by Jamie 2k9:
Quote:
The chances of 185s coming were always very low, nobody in IE taught it was even a serious proposal.
An interesting point. People in IE probably know a thing or two about what is likely to work. In that case where did the idea of the 185s come from? Somewhere in the NTA, the DOT, TII? i.e from people who by all appearances don't have much of a clue.

This is more serious than it might seem at first sight. The 185 caper probably held up the decision to go ahead with the 41 ROTEM intermediate cars, and in doing so may have caused the price to increase from 100m to 150m.

A brilliant example of The Circus clowns at work?
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Unread 01-11-2019, 15:34   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ACustomer View Post
Posted by Jamie 2k9:

An interesting point. People in IE probably know a thing or two about what is likely to work. In that case where did the idea of the 185s come from? Somewhere in the NTA, the DOT, TII? i.e from people who by all appearances don't have much of a clue.

This is more serious than it might seem at first sight. The 185 caper probably held up the decision to go ahead with the 41 ROTEM intermediate cars, and in doing so may have caused the price to increase from 100m to 150m.

A brilliant example of The Circus clowns at work?
Looking at UK stock coming out of service the 185s are the only DMU option anyway suitable. The rest are either way to old, small or not a DMU.

Not sure how much of a factor in holding up the 22s but they have wasted a lot of time and doesn't inspire much confidence in how they will handle the 600 Bi-mode order...
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Unread 10-11-2019, 16:56   #15
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The only offers from the UK were for Pacers...

The new 41 is a clear demonstration of how not to order, had we ordered in 2016 we would not be having a discussion today.

All previous orders were made back to back, so the production line, supply chain etc were all in place. It is a start from fresh now.

New units have to have the new Stage V engines with the new more expensive gearbox
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