What we can do is put a number on the number of people who fly Cork-Belfast, which was 3,380 in March. That's on a route that's twice daily on weekdays and once daily on weekends, so it works out at around 68 people each way per day on weekdays.
That's not a great number and when you consider that the plane will be a lot faster and that the price will be similar, you wouldn't attract too many over.
Obviously, the advantage the train has is that it can also pick up in Mallow, Limerick Junction, Thurles or Port Laoise, none of which have an air service to Belfast. Similarly, it would offer a service from Cork to Drogheda and Dundalk.
If you choose to look at it as two separate services from Cork to Dublin and Dublin to Belfast, where through passengers have the option of staying on the train if they want it makes more sense. Anyone who has caught the train from Amsterdam to Paris will have realised that 90% of passengers get off the train in Brussels to be replaced by a similar number of new faces. However, those people who want to travel through still get the choice. You would probably get a similar thing in Dublin, but if it helps to fill the train, great.
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