[alek smart]

Perhaps the London situation may be of interest to Mr FitzG......News Analysis: Vision for the future



Can other cities follow where London vision leads? Stewart Brown reports.

T2025 report describes London's bus network as "a big success story".


It's easy to dismiss long-term transport plans as pie in the sky. But before doing that with Transport 2025, a vision for the future produced by Transport for London and mayor Ken Livingstone, just consider how much has been achieved in the capital in the last six years.

And while the London experience does not carry over directly to the rest of Britain, it does show what can be done when you have clear political focus, strong leadership and - oh, yes - lots of money.

So while acknowledging that London is different, there are still lessons to be learned. And, like it or not, operators in other conurbations may soon be learning them as there seems to be a growing inevitability that we will see some form of franchising, even if only as a trial, in response to the alleged shortcomings of the deregulated bus market.

No one would ever accuse Livingstone of hiding his light under a bushel, but his claim that T2025 contains "the most comprehensive, robust and well-argued plans for London's transport network in the capital's history" is probably true. And if anyone can turn them into reality it is he, along with his transport commissioner Peter Hendy.

Says Hendy: "Expanding the bus network will be critical to support London's growth, achieve mode shift in outer London and complement the introduction of road user charging."


Expanding the capital's bus network will be
crucial to support London's growth, says
transport commissioner Peter Hendy.

Growth is one of the big issues facing London, and T2025 predicts that by 2016 – just 10 years away – there will be an additional 440,000 jobs and 530,000 extra people in London, generating up to two million extra journeys every day. "Bus is the only feasible and available option to support this growth," the report says, and it suggests that bus demand measured in passenger kilometres could increase by around 35 per cent by 2025. Bus boardings could increase by almost 50 per cent.

The high level of investment in London's bus fleet in recent years has focussed on accessibility and improved service frequencies, but there are environmental benefits too, and T2025 plans to build on this. It says: "Continually improving the bus fleet to be more environmentally efficient will also improve air quality and reduce noise pollution. TfL is at the forefront of implementing new technology for buses. Since March 2006, 59 per cent of buses comply with the Euro 3 standard and the first Euro 4 [models] have now been introduced, with nitrogen oxide (NOx) abatement technology fitted as standard."

It says that continuing investment will result in a more rapid transition to a low carbon fleet by utilising hybrid technology, which should deliver CO2 emission savings of up to 40 per cent per vehicle. There could be even greater emissions reductions if technological advances allow – such as the use of hydrogen as a fuel.

TfL considers differential pricing to discourage peak travel – something raised by Sir Rod Eddington in his transport review (see news, page 6) – but says that this would have only a marginal impact on demand unless unacceptably high increases were applied to peak fares. It also notes this would also affect many workers who had no choice but to travel in the peak, pointing out that those least able to pay would face a greater barrier to accessibility to services.

Reduced congestion is one of T2025's aims, and with it reduced CO2 emissions. To achieve this there needs to be more effective bus priorities to support increased capacity on bus services. The report notes: "More reliable and faster bus journey times can be achieved if congestion levels are reduced. This is essential to achieve mode shift from car travel at the lowest possible bus operational cost. If congestion continues to rise, bus costs will increase just to maintain current levels of service."

T2025 describes London's bus network as "a big success story" since 1999, achieving a patronage increase of 40 per cent, and four per cent modal shift from car. And while the shifts have been highest in central London, assisted by congestion charging and bus priority measures, there has also been modal shift in outer London despite the absence of pricing measures to influence car users.


London has seen modal shift from car to bus of four per cent
since 1999.

A key factor in providing extra capacity on the bus network will be the implementation of more bus priority measures. T2025 wants to see end-to-end priority provided over a substantial proportion of travel corridors to ensure continuing reliability in the face of increasing traffic congestion. It warns: "Effective bus priority will be needed to get more capacity for the same cost – through higher speeds and greater reliability."

Which all sounds good for London. So what are the lessons for city regions elsewhere in the UK?

One is that you need a vision, and someone with the force of personality to see it through. How many local politicians actually have vision – let alone the nerve to stay the course when the going gets tough?

And perhaps you also need a transport commissioner who can back up the political leadership, look at the whole picture, and help steer a course round partisan politics.

And you need a body which not only manages infrastructure investment, which the current PTA/PTE set up does very well in terms of funding bus and rail stations, but has highway responsibilities too and can ensure that bus priority measures are put in place regardless of the views of bickering local councils.

All of which, of course, sounds dangerously like setting up a recipe for transferring control of local bus services from operators to some other authority.

When you look at the London experience and at the grand vision of T2025 there comes an awareness that it may not be franchising as such which worries the bus industry, but franchising within the existing PTA/PTE framework where there is at times a high level of mistrust – running in both directions, it has to be said. Neither side is confident that the other will deliver on its promises.

Is that what makes London different? It's important not to lose sight of the billions of pounds spent on London's transport system, but there's more to it than just money. By and large, TfL and London's bus operators (who are the same groups as are serving most other conurbations) trust each other. They are working together, heading in the same direction.

If franchising is coming elsewhere in Britain, and if it is to work, it will need cool heads and common sense both from operators and franchising authorities. Can they rise to that challenge?






--------------------------------------------------------------------------------